Executive Summary

Volumes and execution were strong: crude oil 156.7 MBopd and total 281.9 MBoepd exceeded the high-end of guidance, while E&P CapEx landed at the low end; Adjusted EBITDA was $547.2MM and Adjusted FCF was $140.8MM .
Non-GAAP EPS was $1.79 vs S&P Global consensus of $1.88, a slight miss; GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $(6.77) driven by a non-cash $539.3MM goodwill impairment tied to market cap declines amid weaker commodity prices .
FY25 outlook raised: oil volumes +500 Bopd to 153.0 MBopd midpoint; CapEx lowered by $20MM to $1.35B midpoint; cash tax range cut to 3.5–6.5% of Adjusted EBITDA; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA ~$2.4B and Adjusted FCF ~$850MM (midpoint) .
Capital return remains aggressive: base dividend $1.30/share and $55.0MM repurchases in Q2; board authorized a new $1B buyback; management emphasized repurchases given intrinsic value vs market pricing .
Near-term stock catalyst: management guided to a Q4 production trough given turn-in-line cadence and capital allocation discipline, which some analysts said contributed to a “perplexing” stock reaction despite operational outperformance; management reiterated confidence in FY26 growth ramp and four-mile lateral program .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Production and cost execution: Oil volumes were above guidance; E&P CapEx at low-end; Adjusted FCF above expectations. CEO: “Chord Energy delivered another outstanding quarter… Free cash flow was above expectations” .
Efficiency gains and four-mile laterals: Four four-mile wells drilled to date with costs below budget; TIL plan accelerated to seven four-mile wells in FY25; early results (Rysted) near two 2-mile wells’ cumulative output in ~150 days .
Shareholder returns and liquidity: Returned over 90% of Adjusted FCF; repurchased shares; authorized $1B program; liquidity ~$1.83B with net leverage ~0.3x TTM as of July 31 .

What Went Wrong

EPS miss and GAAP loss: Adjusted diluted EPS $1.79 missed S&P consensus; GAAP diluted EPS $(6.77) due to a $539.3MM goodwill impairment tied to market cap declines amid commodity price weakness .
LOE at high end and NGL/gas realizations down sequentially: LOE $10.02/boe came in near top of range due to elevated workovers; NGL realizations were 9% of WTI and gas 32% of HH, reflecting seasonality .
Production trough ahead: Fewer Q4 TILs and the decision to add a second frac crew late in 4Q drive a Q4 production trough, raising near-term optics despite better full-year free cash flow per share .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD MM)	$1,454.7	$1,215.0	$1,180.6
Oil, NGL & Gas Revenues ($USD MM)	$1,064.3	$1,103.3	$950.3
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD MM)*	$—	$1,175.9*	$946.4*
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$3.43	$3.66	$(6.77)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($) (Non-GAAP)	$3.49	$4.04	$1.79
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)*	$—	$3.54*	$1.88*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD MM)	$640.1	$695.5	$547.2
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD MM)	$276.9	$290.5	$140.8

Note: S&P Global consensus values marked with *; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Commodity Revenue Breakdown

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Crude Oil Revenues ($USD MM)	$970.4	$956.1	$878.9
NGL Revenues ($USD MM)	$48.0	$61.3	$28.6
Natural Gas Revenues ($USD MM)	$45.9	$85.9	$42.8

Margins and Cost Metrics

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (% of Oil/NGL/Gas Revenues)	60.1%	63.0%	57.6%
LOE ($/boe)	$9.60	$9.56	$10.02
Cash GPT ($/boe)	$2.86	$3.03	$2.80
Cash G&A ($MM)	$31.2	$28.3	$21.7

Adjusted EBITDA Margin calculated from cited Adjusted EBITDA and Oil/NGL/Gas revenues .

Operating KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Production (MBoepd)	273.5	270.9	281.9
Percent Crude Oil (%)	56.1%	56.7%	55.6%
Oil Volumes (MBopd)	153.3	153.7	156.7
TIL Wells (Gross)	36	30	37
E&P & Other CapEx ($MM)	$330.3	$355.4	$355.6

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Oil Volumes (MBopd, midpoint)	FY25	152.5	153.0	Raised
E&P & Other CapEx ($B, midpoint)	FY25	~$1.37	~$1.35	Lowered
LOE ($/boe, midpoint)	FY25	$9.60	$9.60	Maintained
Oil Discount to WTI ($/bbl)	FY25	$(2.70) – $(1.20)	$(2.15) – $(1.15)	Narrowed
NGL Realization (% of WTI)	FY25	10% – 18%	11% – 16%	Adjusted
Gas Realization (% of HH)	FY25	36% – 44%	36% – 41%	Lowered
Cash Tax (% of Adj. EBITDA)	FY25	4% – 9%	3.5% – 6.5%	Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($B)	FY25	~2.2	~2.4	Raised
Adjusted FCF ($MM)	FY25	~650	~850	Raised
Cash G&A ($MM)	FY25	$97 – $107	$90 – $100	Lowered
Base Dividend ($/share)	Q2	$1.30	$1.30	Maintained

3Q25/4Q25 selected guidance: Oil MBopd 153.5–157.5 / 143.5–148.5; Total MBoepd 275.7–285.7 / 261.8–274.8; E&P & Other CapEx $315–$345 / $295–$325 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q2 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	Focus on capital efficiency and synergy capture; early four-mile lateral success	Detailed AI/ML projects across production, reservoir, planning; data camps; internal/external tooling	Expanding
Four-mile laterals	First four-mile lateral drilled; completion commencing 1Q25	4 drilled to date; costs below budget; 7 TIL planned; Rysted outperforming; permitting underway	Accelerating
Capital allocation/returns	100% of Adj. FCF returned via buybacks; base dividend increased	92% of Adj. FCF returned; new $1B repurchase authorization; emphasis on repurchases	Sustained/high
Macro/pricing/differentials	NGL/gas seasonality; diffs modest; robust 1Q25 guide	NGL 9% of WTI; gas 32% of HH; oil diffs improved; adjusted full-year diffs	Mixed/seasonal
LOE/workover efficiency	LOE below midpoint; operational momentum	LOE high due to workovers restoring production; efficiency gains continue	Near-term elevated costs but improving
Midstream egress/differentials	Not highlighted	Engaging on basin egress; expect better diffs/GPT with more options (unquantified)	Potential tailwind
Guidance/production cadence	Strong 1Q25 start, plan weighted to 1H25	Q4 trough given TIL cadence; bringing second frac crew in 4Q	Trough then ramp into FY26

Management Commentary

CEO: “Chord… delivered another outstanding quarter… Free cash flow was above expectations… strong execution… leading to an increase in our full-year production guidance and reduction in capital” .
COO: “Relative to a two mile well, four mile wells are expected to recover 90% to 100% more EUR, for only 40% to 60% more CapEx… translating to an $8–$12/bbl cost of supply reduction” .
CFO: “LOE was $10.2 per BOE… due to increased workover costs… Production taxes averaged 7.3%… below expectations due to nonrecurring refunds… Cash G&A… below guidance… full year cash tax range reduced to 3.5–6.5%” .
CEO on AI/ML: “We went through 31 different projects… decentralized in concept but centralized in influence… building organizational excitement and momentum… tangible results… low cost” .

Q&A Highlights

Four-mile program economics and permitting: Early results strong; economics robust even with some toe-mile degradation; permitting underway; potential for ~50% of future development to be four-mile laterals .
Breakevens and cost structure: Four-mile adoption across half inventory implies ~$5/bbl corporate breakeven improvement; broad cost initiatives (LOE, GPT, G&A) in flight .
AI/ML deployment: Internal “data camps” and tooling yielding efficiency; mix of internal builds and vendor solutions; cross-industry benchmarking .
Production cadence/trough: Intentional capital allocation to maximize FCF/share vs absolute volumes; Q4 trough due to TIL cadence; ramp in early 2026 as the second frac crew returns in 4Q25 .
Midstream egress: Engaging with counterparties; potential long-term improvements to differentials and GPT with additional egress .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)*	5.09*	3.54*	1.88*
Adjusted Diluted EPS Actual ($)	4.69	4.04	1.79
EPS Beat/(Miss) ($)	(0.40)	+0.50	(0.09)
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD MM)*	951.3*	1,175.9*	946.4*
Company Oil/NGL/Gas Revenues ($USD MM)	902.7	1,103.3	950.3
Company Total Revenues ($USD MM)	1,260.7	1,215.0	1,180.6

Notes:

Bold misses/beats: Q2 2025 EPS miss; Q1 2025 EPS beat.
S&P Global consensus values marked with *; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Revenue definition caution: S&P “Revenue” may not equal company “Total revenues”; company also reports “Total oil, NGL and natural gas revenues” excluding purchased oil/gas sales, which affects comparability .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Operational outperformance continued despite macro headwinds; production beat and CapEx discipline drove strong Adjusted FCF, enabling aggressive buybacks and dividend continuity .
EPS miss was modest on a non-GAAP basis; GAAP loss was due to a non-cash goodwill impairment linked to lower market cap amid commodity price declines—no cash impact on FCF or liquidity .
FY25 guidance improved materially: higher oil volumes, lower CapEx, lower cash taxes; FY25 Adj. FCF midpoint lifted to ~$850MM with ~$2.4B Adj. EBITDA, supporting continued capital returns .
Near-term narrative risk: guided Q4 production trough from TIL cadence may pressure sentiment; management reiterated 2026 ramp and stronger per-share FCF outcomes over absolute volume growth .
Four-mile lateral scalability is a structural tailwind to corporate breakevens and F&D costs; permitting and mechanical repeatability are key milestones—early results are encouraging .
AI/ML adoption is broadening across operations and planning, with tangible efficiency gains at low incremental cost—potential medium-term margin upside .
Watch midstream egress developments in Williston; improved options could tighten diffs and lower GPT, benefiting realizations and margins over time .

Appendix: Additional Data Tables

Q2 2025 vs Guidance (Actual vs May 6 guide)

Metric	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Guidance
Oil Volumes (MBopd)	156.7	153.0–156.0
NGL Volumes (MBblpd)	54.1	47.3–48.8
Gas Volumes (MMcfpd)	425.9	408.5–421.5
Total Volumes (MBoepd)	281.9	268.3–275.0
E&P & Other CapEx ($MM)	$355.6	$355–$385
LOE ($/boe)	$10.02	$9.25–$10.25
Cash GPT ($/boe)	$2.80	$2.65–$3.15
Cash G&A ($MM)	$21.7	$26.0–$28.0
Production Taxes (% sales)	7.3%	8.3%–8.8%
Cash Interest ($MM)	$18.6	$16.5–$18.5
Cash Tax (% Adj. EBITDA)	5.9%	2%–9%

Balance Sheet and Liquidity (Quarter-End)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Total Debt ($MM)	$845.0	$810.0	$930.0
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)	$37.0	$35.8	$40.5
Revolver Borrowings ($MM)	$445.0	$60.0	$180.0
Liquidity ($MM)	$1,561.2	$1,945.0	$1,830.6

Non-GAAP Reconciliations (Selected)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)	$640.1	$695.5	$547.2
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($MM)	$276.9	$290.5	$140.8
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$3.49	$4.04	$1.79

Disclosures

S&P Global consensus and actuals used in “Estimates Context” are marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Company financials and operational metrics are sourced from the Q2 2025 press release and 8-K, Q2 2025 call transcript, Q1 2025 press release, and Q4 2024 press release .

Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary